Natural disasters, including earthquakes and floods, are Rogers’ specialty. He serves as associate director of UMR’s Natural Hazards Mitigation Institute and holds the Karl F. Hasselman Chair of Geological Engineering in the geological sciences and engineering department.

For awhile now, Rogers has been paying a lot of attention to the Mississippi River -- from St. Louis to New Orleans. He understood that it was only a matter of time before the levees in New Orleans were compromised by a disaster, just as he’s known that it’s only a matter of time before an earthquake does extensive damage to structures in St. Louis and Memphis, Tenn.

“Midwestern earthquakes, even moderate ones, have the potential to cause more widespread damage than California quakes of the same magnitude," Rogers says.

How so? Rogers explains that the dense bedrock underlying most of the Midwest conveys seismic energy at enormous speeds without losing significant power along the way. That energy is amplified five to 12 times in the soft, sand-filled river channels and basins that dot the flood plains of the region’s major waterways.

“This combination of soft soils sitting on dense rock puts bridges and cities along the river banks at great risk," Rogers says.

Most people are familiar with the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 that rang church bells in Boston, knocked chimneys down in Cincinnati, and lifted the Mississippi River 20 feet, causing it to run backward. But the moderate 6.6 quake of 1895, centered in Charleston, Mo., is the kind of event that has really been on Rogers’ mind a lot of late. “This is the earthquake we should be getting ready for," he says. “It’s in our faces here and now, not 200 or 300 years from now. This is the one that could happen tomorrow."

It’s clear to Rogers that cities like St. Louis and Memphis should be more prepared for the eventuality of such a quake. But, he says, when it comes to being proactive by allocating money to non-terrorism-related projects, whether it’s strengthening bridges or building better levees, people and politicians have been waiting until it’s too late.

“That’s the lesson of New Orleans," Rogers says.